<h3>Specific trade ideas (numbers matter)</h3>
<ul>
<li>Relative-value long: IWD vs QQQ — consider trading the pair if IWD breaks a 3-day VWAP momentum high while QQQ fails to reclaim its 20-day MA. Position size: 0.5–1% notional, stop 1–1.5 ATR on the pair. (ATR and MA checks in <a href="https://tradingwizard.ai/app/analyze">Chart Analyzer</a>.)</li>
<li>Bond-duration play: buy VGIT or BIV on intraday pullback to the 4-hour VWAP when yields spike; target a 1.5–2.0% move in ETF price for a favorable R:R. Use size consistent with duration risk — a 25 bps move in yields can swing long-duration ETFs materially.</li>
<li>Tech/AI tactical: if you hold AI winners like NVDA, trim into strength and monitor creation activity (ETF unit prints). Add only after 2 consecutive positive creation days which increase open interest / ETF AUM — that’s a cleaner confirmation of institutional re-entry.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Risk checklist</h3>
<p>Watch these triggers before increasing size:</p>
<ul>
<li>New-unit creation/destruction for principal ETFs (daily prints).</li>
<li>US Treasury near-term yield moves (2s/10s re-steepen or invert triggers different responses).</li>
<li>Volatility pick-up: VIX sustained >18 and rising worsens growth exposures.</li>
</ul>
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