Fed Flags US-China Trade Risks

Stocks bounced as trade rhetoric intensified. Retail sales is today’s catalyst.

TL;DR:

• 🏦 Fed warns on China trade risks
• 🚧 Trump floats 100% China tariffs
• 📈 U.S. stocks rebound on tech
• 🛍️ Retail sales print due today

Fed Warns on China Trade Risks

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said renewed U.S.-China tensions, including China’s rare earth export restrictions, pose a material risk to the U.S. growth outlook. The warning keeps policy uncertainty elevated and puts supply chains back in focus. Traders stayed cautious in cyclicals and maintained hedges into event risk. Source

Trump Floats 100% China Tariffs

President Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports overshadowed IMF and World Bank meetings, reviving full-scale trade war fears. Such a move would likely lift import costs and stoke goods inflation, complicating the Fed’s path. Headline risk remains high for trade-exposed sectors and global risk sentiment. Source

U.S. Stocks Rebound on Tech

After a volatile stretch, U.S. stocks mostly rose, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.7%, supported by strong tech earnings. The bounce eased near-term pressure but keeps the tape data- and headline-dependent. Position sizing stayed disciplined as volatility lingered. Source

Retail Sales Print Due Today

September U.S. retail sales arrive this morning and will steer views on consumer strength, growth, and rates. A firm print supports yields and challenges rate-cut hopes; a soft read does the opposite. Expect movement in the dollar, front-end rates, and discretionary. Source