Global Stocks Surge on Trade Optimism

Risk rallied yesterday on U.S.–China thaw hopes and cooler core inflation, firming odds of a Fed rate cut this week. Earnings from megacap tech now steer the next move as a data-light tape persists.

TL;DR:

🌍 Global stocks surge on trade optimism
🧊 Core inflation eases to 3.0% YoY
🏦 Fed poised for 25 bp cut
💻 Megacap tech earnings on deck

Global Stocks Surge on Trade Optimism

Equities rallied worldwide after U.S. and Chinese officials outlined a framework to pause fresh tariffs and export curbs ahead of a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. Risk appetite improved as traders rotated into cyclicals and EM assets on hopes of reduced policy friction. Momentum now hinges on concrete steps and how quickly trade channels reopen. Source

Core Inflation Eases to 3.0% YoY

The U.S. core CPI for September rose 3.0% year-over-year, a touch below forecasts, reinforcing the disinflation trend. Bonds firmed and rate-cut odds rose as markets priced a softer policy path. The print supports risk assets, but the reaction path depends on guidance from the Fed this week. Source

Fed Poised for 25 bp Cut

The FOMC is widely expected to trim the policy rate by 0.25% on October 29, citing moderating inflation and a softer labor backdrop. Markets care more about the pace of cuts and balance-sheet signals than the single move. Data uncertainty from the ongoing government shutdown leaves the Fed leaning on high-frequency and market-based indicators. Source

Megacap Tech Earnings On Deck

Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple report this week, with focus on AI capex, cloud growth, and margin discipline. Index dispersion risk is high as results steer sector leadership and broader sentiment. Options pricing implies outsized moves; guidance will dictate follow-through. Source

Global stocks surge on trade optimism and easing inflation