Liquidity Rotates: AI Pullback Meets Bitcoin ETF Flip Today

<h3>Bias</h3>
<p>Neutral-to-cautious near-term. AI names are vulnerable to headline-driven re-rating until CAPEX clarity arrives. Bitcoin's path depends on whether ETF flows revert to net inflows. The market is flow-sensitive — small marginal changes in ETF behavior can amplify moves.</p>

<h3>What I'm watching (and how I position)</h3>
<ul>
  <li>Daily net flows for IBIT and FBTC. A return to consistent +$200M/day inflows would re-establish crypto bias; continued outflows maintain downside risk. Watch <a href="https://farside.co.uk/btc/">Farside Investors</a> or ETF trackers for real-time reads.</li>
  <li>Nasdaq 30-min VWAP vs price for AI leaders. Failure to reclaim session VWAP with volume suggests lower-highs and rotational distribution — reduce size or hedge with puts/shorts on rallies.</li>
  <li>BTC: key trigger is $100k support. If price breaks and ETF outflows persist, target $90k as a risk zone; if flows stabilise and price reclaims $112k–125k, bias turns constructive again.</li>
  <li>Risk sizing: cut gross exposure by 20–40% when flows are one-way outflows and increase cash buffer. Use ATR-based stops: for BTC, consider ATR(14) reference (~$4k–$8k depending on timeframe) and tighten into rallies.</li>
</ul>

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