Nvidia Earnings Jitters: AI Bubble Fears, 8% Move Ahead

Q: How can I systematize my Nvidia and AI-chip trading workflow?

Use TradingWizard.ai Chart Analyzer for instant structure, then set alerts and conditional rules with Algo AI Trading Bots. That lets you encode triggers such as earnings-day VWAP breaks, volume spikes, and sector divergence instead of reacting emotionally to every headline.

Source: Wikimedia Commons

Market Context

By November 18, 2025, the AI trade finally hit a real stress test. The Dow dropped nearly 500 points as investors questioned stretched AI valuations and dialed back Fed cut hopes, with Nvidia front and center in the selloff.

Tech led the decline for a fourth straight session, with Nvidia down about 7% over five days heading into its Q3 FY2026 report. Media and sell-side desks are openly using the phrase “AI bubble” again, and some high-profile investors have exited positions ahead of the print.
On the macro side, the probability of a December Fed rate cut, which was near 90% a month ago, has slid toward a coin toss, tightening financial conditions and pressuring long-duration growth names like AI chips. Coverage from outlets like the New York Post and Business Insider frames Nvidia as the poster child of that tension.

At the same time, the fundamental story remains huge. On August 27, 2025, Nvidia reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $46.7 billion, up 56% year-on-year, with $41.1 billion from data centers and EPS beating expectations, according to the official Nvidia Newsroom and coverage from CNBC. That quarter also came with Q3 guidance around $54 billion, slightly above the Street.

Now, going into the Q3 FY2026 release (covering the quarter ending October 2025), the setup is simple:

Price action: Nvidia is still up roughly 40% year-to-date, but down from its late-October high near $212 to around the mid-$180s by November 14, 2025, with further weakness into November 18, 2025, as noted by a MarketMinute analysis.
Expectations: Analysts are looking for Q3 revenue in the $54–55.4 billion range and EPS growth north of 50% year-on-year, also highlighted in that MarketMinute preview piece.
Positioning: Options markets are pricing a roughly 7–8% move on the report, suggesting heavy hedging and speculative positioning on both sides of the AI trade.

In other words, the numbers are stellar, but the bar is higher. The risk is no longer “miss vs. beat”; it’s whether “another 50%+ growth quarter” is still enough to justify AI-chip valuations under rising rate uncertainty.

Data Highlights

Here’s what actually changed beneath the AI hype and bubble headlines.

<h3>1. Data center dominance is now the whole story</h3>
<p>In Q2 FY2026, Nvidia’s data center revenue hit $41.1 billion, about 88% of total sales, driven by aggressive rollout of Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra systems to hyperscalers and sovereign AI projects. That’s from Nvidia’s own release and subsequent breakdowns from outlets like <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nvidia-posts-56-revenue-jump-q2">Nasdaq</a> and <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-q2-profit-soars-59-021402431.html">Yahoo Finance</a>.</p>
<p>The issue now is durability. Growth was 56% year-on-year and 5–6% quarter-on-quarter. Fantastic, but slower than the triple-digit surges that kicked off the AI boom in 2023–2024. The market is asking: is this the “plateau” phase, or just a pause before another hardware cycle?</p>

<h3>2. China is sidelined, but the rest of the world is still sprinting</h3>
<p>Due to U.S. export controls, Nvidia reported no H20 shipments to China in Q2 FY2026; instead it released $180 million of previously reserved H20 inventory and booked about $650 million of H20 sales to a non‑China customer, according to the official <a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2026">Nvidia statement</a> and summaries from <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-q2-profit-soars-59-021402431.html">Yahoo Finance</a>.</p>
<p>Management and external commentators still see multi‑trillion‑dollar AI infrastructure spend this decade, but China is no longer the incremental driver. That concentrates the growth risk into the U.S., Europe, and a handful of sovereign AI build‑outs.</p>

<h3>3. Macro is no longer a tailwind</h3>
<p>Back in October, markets were almost certain the Fed would cut rates in December. As of mid‑November 2025, that conviction has faded — Fed officials have turned more cautious on inflation, pushing the odds of a near‑term cut closer to 50–50. Reporting from the <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/11/18/business/dow-plunges-500-points-on-fears-of-ai-bubble-diminished-rate-cut-hopes/">New York Post</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-stocks-decline-nvidia-earnings-hd-q3-report-ai-nvda-2025-11">Business Insider</a> ties this shift directly to the November 18 selloff.</p>
<p>Higher real yields pressure long-duration growth names across tech, so Nvidia now has to fight both valuation gravity and macro gravity at once.</p>

<h3>Key numbers at a glance</h3>
<table>
  <thead><tr><th>Metric / Market Signal</th><th>Value / Change</th></tr></thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td>Q2 FY2026 revenue</td>
      <td>$46.7B (+56% YoY, +6% QoQ)</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Q2 FY2026 data center revenue</td>
      <td>$41.1B (~88% of total, +56% YoY)</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Q3 FY2026 revenue expectation</td>
      <td>$54–55.4B consensus (MarketMinute & LSEG estimates)</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Implied post‑earnings move (options)</td>
      <td>~7–8% in either direction</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Recent drawdown into earnings</td>
      <td>~7% decline in first half of November 2025</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>Source mix: Nvidia’s official <a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2026">Q2 FY2026 release</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/27/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q2-2026.html">CNBC</a>, <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nvidia-posts-56-revenue-jump-q2">Nasdaq</a> and MarketMinute’s <a href="https://business.ricentral.com/ricentral/article/marketminute-2025-11-18-nvidias-earnings-loom-a-stress-test-for-the-ai-revolution-and-broader-tech-market">earnings preview</a>.</p>

Trade Takeaways

This is no longer a simple “buy every dip” story. Into the Q3 FY2026 print and through the next few weeks, traders need to treat Nvidia as an AI macro proxy plus an idiosyncratic volatility event.

<h3>1. Bias: short‑term two‑sided, medium‑term still constructive</h3>
<p>The tape says distribution: persistent selling into earnings, heavy options pricing, and profit‑taking from notable funds. But the fundamental run‑rate — $40B+ data center revenue per quarter — is still unlike anything else in semis.</p>
<p>Practical stance I’d consider:</p>
<ul>
  <li><strong>Short‑term (days around earnings):</strong> Neutral to slightly negative bias. Price is vulnerable if data center growth slows a few points more than expected or Q4 guidance looks conservative.</li>
  <li><strong>1–6 months:</strong> Still constructive as long as data center revenue growth holds north of ~30–35% YoY and new Blackwell/Rubin commentary stays strong.</li>
</ul>

<h3>2. Levels and triggers to watch</h3>
<p>Price levels will move, but the logic is stable. On most NVDA charts into November 19, 2025, three zones matter:</p>
<ul>
  <li><strong>Recent swing high resistance:</strong> The late‑October area around the prior high (roughly low $210s). If a post‑earnings spike stuffs here on heavy volume, it signals “good but not good enough.”</li>
  <li><strong>Pre‑earnings congestion / VWAP area:</strong> The mid‑$180s region, where price has churned into earnings. It’s a natural battleground and a reference for anchored VWAP from the last major leg up.</li>
  <li><strong>Gap risk zone:</strong> A 7–8% implied move suggests we could see either a sharp break below recent support or a squeeze back toward highs in a single session.</li>
</ul>
<p>How I would translate that into action:</p>
<ul>
  <li><strong>Intraday traders:</strong> Let the first 15–30 minutes after the print set a clear high/low, then trade around VWAP. Fades of an extended move that snaps back through VWAP often work better than chasing the first spike.</li>
  <li><strong>Swing traders already long:</strong> Consider reducing into strength above recent highs or using tight trailing stops under prior day lows on the first green day after earnings.</li>
  <li><strong>New entries:</strong> Prefer pullbacks that hold above the pre‑earnings congestion zone with rising volume and positive breadth in semis, rather than buying the initial gap.</li>
</ul>

<h3>3. Volatility and sizing</h3>
<p>Options markets are telling you this: a single day around the report can wipe out weeks of grind. With a 7–8% implied move:</p>
<ul>
  <li>Size equity positions smaller than usual; think “half normal size” if you plan to hold into the print.</li>
  <li>Prefer defined‑risk structures (spreads, collars) over naked options unless you’re deliberately trading gamma.</li>
  <li>Consider selling premium only when you’re comfortable owning tails — a surprise on China, export rules, or AI capex could easily overshoot the implied range.</li>
</ul>

<h3>4. Where TradingWizard.ai helps</h3>
<p>For a name like Nvidia into a binary event, structure and speed matter more than opinions. Here’s a practical workflow:</p>
<ul>
  <li>Use <a href="https://tradingwizard.ai/app/analyze">Chart Analyzer</a> to auto‑mark major swing highs/lows, anchored VWAPs from earnings dates, and recent ATR. That gives you objective zones for stops and targets instead of guessing.</li>
  <li>In <a href="https://tradingwizard.ai/app">the app</a>, scan related semis and AI names (AMD, AVGO, TSM, MSFT) to see whether the move in Nvidia is being confirmed or faded by the rest of the complex.</li>
  <li>Set conditional rules with <a href="https://tradingwizard.ai/app/bots">Algo AI Trading Bots</a> — for example, “if NVDA gaps +/-8% and then loses intraday VWAP on volume >1.5x average, cut risk or flip bias.”</li>
</ul>

<p>And if you want to act fast: use <a href="https://tradingwizard.ai/app/analyze">Chart Analyzer</a>, scan opportunities in <a href="https://tradingwizard.ai/app">the app</a>, automate alerts via <a href="https://tradingwizard.ai/app/bots">Algo AI Trading Bots</a>. Check <a href="https://tradingwizard.ai/pricing">pricing</a> or learn more at our <a href="https://tradingwizard.ai/academy">academy</a>.</p>

FAQ

Is it too late to trade Nvidia around this earnings?

Not necessarily. The options market is still pricing a big move — roughly 7–8% — which means opportunity if you manage risk. But chasing the first post‑earnings candle tends to be lower quality. Let the initial range and VWAP form, then use tools like Chart Analyzer to define whether you’re buying strength or fading exhaustion.

How big should I size Nvidia positions into this volatility?

For most traders, cutting position size to half (or less) of normal swing size makes sense around a binary catalyst. A 7–8% overnight gap can translate into multi‑R losses if your stop is too tight or your size is too big. Keep risk per trade constant and adjust share count down.

How can I systematize my Nvidia and AI-chip trading workflow?

Use Chart Analyzer for instant structure, then alerts with Algo AI Trading Bots. Build rules like “alert when NVDA crosses earnings-day VWAP with 2x volume” or “scan when semis index diverges from NVDA by more than 3%.”

Sources

Ready to act? Head to TradingWizard.ai, analyse a chart in seconds and turn signals into structured plans.