<ul>
<li>AI selloff: Nasdaq fell roughly 2% on November 5, 2025, after Palantir and other AI beneficiaries disappointed market expectations (reported by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-ai-selloff-pix-2025-11-05/">Reuters</a>).</li>
<li>SNAP funding: USDA revised guidance on November 6, 2025, to provide partial SNAP funding equivalent to ~65% of normal November allotments, creating uncertainty in near-term consumer spend in lower-income cohorts (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/09/trump-administration-tells-states-to-undo-full-food-aid-00643887">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/snap-benefits-government-shutdown-food-stamps-live-updates-10999375">Newsweek</a>).</li>
<li>Bitcoin ETF flows: U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded about +$240m on November 6, 2025, after several days of outflows—flows remain choppy and correlated with risk‑on/risk‑off swings (<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/07/u-s-bitcoin-etf-flows-turn-positive-after-six-days-of-outflows">CoinDesk</a>, <a href="https://cointist.net/articles/bitcoin-november-2025-outlook-key-levels-etf-flows-and-potential-scenarios/">Cointist</a>).</li>
</ul>
<table>
<thead><tr><th>Metric</th><th>Value / Change (early Nov 2025)</th></tr></thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>Nasdaq one‑day drop (Nov 5, 2025)</td><td>~-2.0%</td></tr>
<tr><td>Spot BTC ETF net inflow (Nov 6, 2025)</td><td>~+$240M (one day)</td></tr>
<tr><td>SNAP November funding change</td><td>Revised to ~65% of normal allotments (announced Nov 6, 2025)</td></tr>
<tr><td>Macro signal</td><td>Rotation into bonds & value ETFs; rising VIX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>Immediate bias</h3>
<p>Short-term bias = risk-off / rotation. Expect continued pressure on overextended AI / chip names until either a) clear earnings beats arrive for the sector, or b) flows reverse materially from bonds/value back to growth. In the meantime, preferred exposures: short-duration core bond ETFs, value cyclicals (select financials, energy, industrials) and defensive staples where consumption is sticky.</p>
<h3>Triggers & levels</h3>
<p>- Tech risk trigger: if Nasdaq closes back above the 20‑DMA with volume pickup, consider reloading growth exposure. For now treat rallies in AI names as rallies-to-sell unless supported by sustainable breadth.<br>
- Bitcoin: short-term momentum trigger is ETF flow consistency. If spot BTC ETFs post 3 consecutive days of >$200M inflows, bias turns constructive; otherwise, treat inflow spikes as transient. Key on‑chain resist/support: ~$115k resistance cluster, $110k support (short-term). See flow notes at <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/07/u-s-bitcoin-etf-flows-turn-positive-after-six-days-of-outflows">CoinDesk</a>.</p>
<h3>Risk management</h3>
<p>Volatility steps up—widen stops where IV is elevated. Use ATR or VWAP to size entries: target R:R 1.5–2.0 with max exposure per idea capped based on realized volatility. If SNAP funding remains uncertain and consumer prints miss, re‑weight to higher quality cash flow names and longer-duration Treasuries.</p>
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