Pulse
U.S.-China Extend Trade Truce After Trump-Xi Summit
Sep 25, 2026 · 5 min read
Trade stability supported equities while lower yields and oil reduced pressure.
September 26, 2026 · 5 min read · TradingWizard AI
| Event | Affected Assets | Likely Volatility | What Traders Should Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S.-China trade truce extended | $SPY, $FXI, $AAPL | Medium | Prior session highs, China exposure, tariff-sensitive sectors, and January 10 headlines. |
| Durable-goods orders unchanged | $DIA, $XLI, $USD | Low to medium | Core capital-goods revisions, industrial breadth, and Treasury yield confirmation. |
| U.S. equities rise as yields fall | $SPY, $QQQ, $TLT | Medium | Index resistance, market breadth, real yields, and growth-stock relative strength. |
| Hormuz agreement discussions | $USO, $XLE, $CL | High | Shipping access, crude futures gaps, energy-sector support, and geopolitical confirmation. |
| Empty Saturday macro calendar | $ES, $NQ, $DXY | Low during closure | Weekend headlines and futures gaps when electronic trading resumes. |
<h3>U.S.-China Trade Truce Extended Through January 10</h3>
<p>President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping extended the trade truce through January 10. The extension delays another tariff escalation and reduces near-term policy uncertainty for multinational companies and Chinese equities. The structural benefit remains temporary because the deadline creates another defined event-risk window, according to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/trump-xi-summit-takeaways.html">CNBC's summit report</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Key Assets to Watch:</strong> $FXI could benefit from lower tariff risk, $AAPL could react to changes in China-related supply-chain expectations, and $SPY could hold a risk premium advantage while the truce remains active.</p>
<h3>Durable-Goods Orders Hold Near $338.6 Billion</h3>
<p>U.S. durable-goods orders were virtually unchanged in August at $338.6 billion. The flat headline indicates limited acceleration in manufacturing demand. Revisions and core capital-goods components will determine whether business investment is stabilizing or weakening, based on the <a href="https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html">U.S. Census Bureau release</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Key Assets to Watch:</strong> $XLI could weaken if underlying orders contract, $DIA could respond to industrial-sector breadth, and $USD could move if the data changes growth or rate expectations.</p>
<h3>U.S. Indexes Rise as Yields and Oil Decline</h3>
<p>Major U.S. indexes closed higher as Treasury yields and oil prices declined. The Dow ended a three-week losing streak. Lower discount rates supported equity valuations, while cheaper crude reduced immediate inflation pressure, according to <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-and-p-500-09252026-12139934">Investopedia's market report</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Key Assets to Watch:</strong> $QQQ could outperform if yields continue falling, $SPY requires follow-through above the prior session high, and $TLT could advance if Treasury demand remains firm.</p>
<h3>Hormuz Agreement Talks Pressure Crude Oil</h3>
<p>Oil prices declined as the United States and Iran explored a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A credible reopening would reduce shipping constraints and remove part of crude's geopolitical risk premium. Prices remain exposed to headline reversals until operational access is confirmed, according to <a href="https://www.energyconnects.com/news/oil/2026/september/oil-slips-with-us-and-iran-said-to-be-exploring-hormuz-agreement/">Bloomberg reporting published by Energy Connects</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Key Assets to Watch:</strong> $USO could fall if supply routes normalize, $XLE could underperform on weaker crude margins, and $CL could gap sharply on confirmed or rejected terms.</p>
<h3>Saturday Calendar Contains No Major Scheduled Catalysts</h3>
<p>No major U.S. economic releases or Federal Reserve, ECB, BoE, or BoJ decisions were scheduled for Saturday, September 26. Closed cash markets shift risk toward unscheduled geopolitical and trade headlines. Traders should verify the next release window through the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar">FRED economic release calendar</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Key Assets to Watch:</strong> $ES and $NQ could open with gaps after weekend headlines, while $DXY could react first to changes in trade or rate expectations.</p>
| Signal | Confirmation | Risk Control | Execution Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| $SPY breaks the prior session high | Positive breadth and stable or lower Treasury yields | Stop below the breakout level or session low | Avoid entry if the breakout lacks volume expansion. |
| $FXI outperforms $SPY | China-sensitive stocks participate across multiple sectors | Reduce size before new tariff headlines | Treat January 10 as a defined policy-risk deadline. |
| $QQQ strengthens with falling yields | $TLT rises and growth-stock breadth improves | Exit if yields reverse above the prior session high | Do not chase a price-only move without rate confirmation. |
| $USO breaks support | Crude futures weaken and $XLE underperforms | Use a stop above the breakdown level | Expect gap risk from Hormuz agreement headlines. |
| Weekend futures open outside Friday's range | Price holds beyond the range after initial liquidity improves | Reduce position size until the gap structure stabilizes | Do not trade the first move without confirmation. |
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